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1. On Ukraine and Russia. As I mentioned in a post below, I lived in Ukraine before and during the Orange Revolution (2003-2004).  Also, from my education, I now have some friends who work higher up in some of the Russian Oligarchies. I don’t get to speak with them too often now because of what has happened.

   If one wants to understand what is going on in Ukraine, one has to take a bit of a deeper view beyond the last couple of years. Ukraine has only existed as an entity separate from Russia since the early 1990s. Before, it was always part of Russia or the Soviet Union. This was all just one country. There is some historical nuance between the Kiev Russians and those from Moscow and St. Petersburg; culturally and linguistically, they are close. The exception in Ukraine is the area around Lviv. This is the historically Rus area that was part of the Austro-Hungarian empire. They speak a different language, now known as Ukrainian, and many are Catholic instead of Orthodox.  When I was living in Ukraine, pretty much everyone spoke Russian; the TV was in Russian, and only in visiting Lviv did I first hear people actually speak Ukrainian in the streets.

   I was in Odessa. The modern Russian language was invented there by Puskin. The mutiny on the Battleship Potemkin happened there, which helped spark the Russian Revolution. While Odessa is deep in Ukraine, it is known through film, books, and history as a Russian city. 

   Under the Soviet Union and pretty much up until 2013, there was complete freedom of movement. People we knew had families that had moved to Moscow for better jobs, and people from all over Russia came to Odessa in the summer to enjoy the beaches and the summer nightclubs. Odessa’s economy was very dependent on Russia, and Russia’s economy was also heavily dependent on Ukraine.

   That doesn’t mean people in Odessa wanted to be ruled over by thugs in Moscow. The reason that the Orange Revolution and later the 2013 Coup worked was because the oligarchs running things generally did an extremely poor job. However, the Ukrainians also know how violent the Maidan coup was in 2013. I remember the people being burned alive in Odessa because they objected to the new government. And that new government went right to work shelling Donetsk because those citizens decided not to go along.

   I bring up the history because Russians really see Ukraine as an extension of Russia. While many Ukrainians want to be separate from rulers in Moscow, they also have family and economic interests intimately tied to Russia. The reality of the difference between Ukraine and Russia is far blurrier in reality than the media makes it out to be.

   As for what Russia wants – they were happy with the status quo prior to the Orange Revolution in 2004. The Orange Revolution was the Western-backed orange party led by Viktor Yushchenko and the blue party led by Moscow puppet Viktor Yanukovich. Yushchenko and the West temporarily won, but Moscow was able to walk it back, and in the 2013 Coup, it was again Moscow’s Yanukovich who was run out. The Orange Revolution was the nice version, and 2013 was the violent version when Victoria Nuland didn’t get her way the first time.

   What Russia wants is for 2013 to never be able to happen again. Ukraine was essentially an administrative colony. I would say, at this point, Russia is going to at least take back Odessa and likely Kiev. It is less clear what would happen with Lviv and the region there, but the guys in Moscow are both practical and vindictive, so it is difficult to know how that will go. Rumor is they are trying to cut a deal to give it to Poland, which the residents in Lviv likely will not like. It could end up something akin to Moldova – likely equally poor.

   I would also say a very large portion of the refugees would return. If war starts in your country – wouldn’t you leave? But then, if you are in a place where you are a refugee, you do not speak the language, you do not have your food, etc., but you have a home to return to, likely you may return. I think the Russians know this and expect some of this. Certainly, not everyone will return as some EU countries are better to live in.

   I would say the second goal to make this not happen again is not to grind away at Ukrainians but to grind away at the foreign fighters and Eric Prince’s army as much as it can. The Russians were able to capture 60-70% of Ukraine’s industrial base in the early months of the war. However, they have been stymied, in part because their army is mediocre with old WWII level equipment and because the private mercs are well-trained special operators. It does look now like the Russians, though, have slowly been grinding them all down. I would also say that all the graft and corruption that goes on in the Western support of the war goes on equally on the Russian side, so some Russian interests are profiting off a long war. Also, there are people on the Russian side who are eager to take possession of their newly acquired capital. The Russians are also big weapons exporters. If they show that they can stand against US at a lower price, there are a lot of buyers.

2. Hello Catherine,

   I am a returning subscriber. I met you at a Solari Luncheon at a Los Angeles golf course in 2017. At the time, I was debating whether or not to go to London Business School, and you encouraged me. I have to say, that was great advice. Frankly, you should maybe do an episode on how the graduates of top business schools run most of the Western governments. I had a business of my own before the MBA, but I just had no idea how much I would be getting from that experience.

   It is mostly through this experience that I can fill in some of the stuff about China. I will also fill in a bit more on Ukraine– as I lived there just before and during the Orange Revolution – but I will do that in a second post because this will be long.

   So I have a long history with Chinese Buddhist organizations. These organizations were mostly Taiwanese, but through them, I met Americans and others who spent a lot of time in China. I also work in tech manufacturing, so I have a lot of connections sourcing and interfacing with people doing business in China.

   China is no longer the world’s factory. Much of this has already moved most to Vietnam and some to India. This process started about when the “Pivot to Asia” was announced, and the Quad was reintroduced as a more formal security pact. You can also look at foreign capital numbers moving in and out of China; the move is reflected here. Also, if you think of intelligence agencies’ function stacking, just add in COVID-19 starting in Wuhan and then making it near impossible for Westerners and Western businesses to function in China.

   Here are a few source videos on this from China Insights. This channel is associated with the Fa Lung Gong and likely their related intelligence connections, but it is good nonetheless.

   On Foxconn moving out of China and its associated impact:
   https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yoUO0SyvMnI

   On foreigners disappearing from Shanghai:
   https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ktDnANuLTHQ

   I also believe we are already in the first phase of a war. It started as an economic attack, although the Chinese government set itself up for this by running much of its economy as a Ponzi scheme. I do think weather weapons, if you look at the recent floods in Beijing that wiped out surrounding towns or last year when the Yangtze River completely dried up.

   For some other background, when I was at London Business School [LBS] in 2019, some of my cohort came from an economics class where an economist who was involved with CFR types said it had already been decided that war with China was going to happen.

   On a trip to Beijing through LBS that year, we were also briefed by a Western lawyer living there that he believed Xi was allowed to be party leader for life because he had agreed to ensure China retakes Taiwan. Also, on that trip, we were thoroughly briefed that the Chinese market was not open to the West. The terms to set up a Western business in China were that you need a Chinese partner with at least 50% ownership and that you have to turn over source code and other tech design documents to the Chinese gov for anything you are working on. Then we were given several case studies of businesses that went into China only to find the Chinese partner was then setting up a duplicate business secretly. When the Western company tried to sue in Chinese courts, the courts ruled against the Westerner, kicked the Western partner out of the country, and handed everything to the native Chinese person.

   Inferring why American oligarchs may be upset and want war. I would think that all the funneling of American pension fund money to build out China came with a deal that banks and big tech received actual access to the Chinese market and their collateral. Instead, the CCP took the money and screwed them. If you look into the Chinese Companies that trade on NYSE, what those companies’ reporting requirements are, and where the actual ownership is, one then also sees these are all just shell companies. They are more akin to a derivative but have no claim to the assets of the actual Chinese firm.

   There is so much more I can write here, but it is already very long for just a comment.

   1. Jonathan, Thank you for your comments. I found them very interesting and thought provoking.

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