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Going to the Mattresses – Bailouts, Online Lives & the True Costs of Shutdown

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79 Comments

  1. I have become very interested in the weight of the logic behind the virus fear. Especially since here, in San Francisco, the government has forced the closure of most businesses and is driving people apart from each other in a full-blown panic.

    I stumbled across http://theinfectiousmyth.com/book/CoronavirusPanic.pdf which resonates a lot with John Rappaport’s work. I don’t know what my conclusion is yet, but I thought it was extremely interesting to learn about the testing techniques and biases. Is this an epidemic of a virus, or an epidemic of a testing illusion?

    2. Good info James, just like cancer, the “cure” (mustard gas and radiation, proven to cause cancer) is worse then the disease

  2. In baseball when there is a Full Count 3/2, the next pitch is called the PAYOFF PITCH. That is because the next pitch to the batter will cause something to happen (walk or hit or strike out).

    It seems that the build up over the last month of Corona Mania is leading to the Payoff Pitch in the next few days. Something is about to happen. Forced business shutdowns, educational closures, sporting & entertainment suspensions, limiting meetings & full media coverage Now predictions of 20% + unemployment (when just 4 weeks ago it was 3%) and government possibly sending out checks …

    How quickly it all changed. Perhaps too quickly? Too quickly for an otherwise strong economy …

    For me, I am not afraid & staying in action. Paying attention, adapting & looking for immediate solutions. And praying … a lot!

    Grateful for my Solari community and your insights, Catherine. I’m not sure what the view from Europe is … but for me – here is Texas – there seems to be momentum for that Payoff Pitch.

    1. Good insight. Just recorded the interview with Farrell. So they dribble our $65,000 back to us $1,000 a month – and there are BIG CONDITIONS.

      1. I was just thinking of tweeting Trump and telling him I prefer my $65,000 with interest, and all at once. While also being able to maintain all my constitutional rights and Health Freedoms.

        I’m afraid to know about the conditions. But I already know I won’t like them.

    2. I love using baseball as a metaphor for life. It works so well when you need to explain complex real world ideas. I love your metaphor above – it does feel as though we have arrived at the PAYOFF PITCH part of the ball game.

      There is another possibility though in addition to walk, hit, or strike out. Some of my most favorite at bats to watch are the ones where the batter can drive up the pitch count by staying in the fight by continuously fouling the ball off.

      I remember a particularly exciting at bat between first basemen Rizzo of the Cubs against pitcher Andreise of the D-Backs in September 2018. Rizzo got himself into an 0-2 count right away with a guy on third base and then choked up on the bat and fouled off the next 10 or so pitches before taking a few balls and then fouling off again with a 3-2 pitch count. On the 17th pitch he lined out, but he was met with applause for persevering for 17 total pitches. He never gave up. And even though the pitcher ultimately won the battle, it was a pyrrhic victory because Baez, who was on deck watching the entire time, who saw every single pitch that pitcher had in his arsenal up close, stepped up and hit a two run shot. When interviewed after the game, the Pitcher Andreise just kept repeating, “I threw him every single thing I could think of and he JUST WOULDN”T QUIT, I was mentally and physically worn down, I had nothing left to throw”

      The score card and the permanent stats will reflect Rizzo with a line out and Baez with an HR and 2RBIs, but everyone knows that Baez never hits that HR without Rizzo wearing that pitcher down. So much so that he was chased out of the game after only one inning, and with the D backs forced to turn to their bullpen so early in the game, the Cubs were able to win the game.

      We very well might be at the payoff pitch, but I’m hoping that if we can hang in there and at a minimum stay alive by fouling off whatever they might throw our way, perhaps we can force them to show us all their pitches and help chase their pitchers out of the game. Because Humanity sure could use a two run HR shot right now 🙂

      1. I am still ruminating. Seems to me there will a longer build to any payoff pitch.

        1. It is all so confusing right now, so many different scenarios and theories, it makes my head spin. Is this all going according to plan or did someone screw up or a combo of both?

          1. Celine:

            Dr. Farrell and I cover lots and I have more to discuss on Money and Markets tonight. The uncertainty is significant but there are patterns that are clear – part of what is happening requires living with much greater uncertainty. That is why it is so important to focus on what will make you healthy and productive as the environment unfolds and move forward on the nuts and bolts. Question is will this lock down last for 1 month, 2 months or permanently. All three are possible.

            Catherine

          2. Thank you Catherine – I look forward to listening tonight. Spring is here – its time for new beginnings!

  3. Did you hear the one about the Chinese lady who flew back to China after not being able to get adequate treatment in US?

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/health/coronavirus-testing-denied-us-china-covid-19-massachusetts-a9404366.html

    If you guys are curious where this is going, it’s also worthwhile to look at what China has done. We have an app which gives you a green-yellow-red ranking depending on your risk factor, and tracks your location constantly to monitor for quarantine compliance, to see contact with infected people, to see if you can board a train or a plane or if you have essential business somewhere. You have to show your color to be able to do many things, such as enter public places or go to school. Also all foreigners must undergo strict monitoring and a 14 day quarantine- in Beijing, at a government “hotel.” I would guess all domestic travelers will soon have to register themselves upon arrival.

    It’s interesting to see the NYT critique the quarantine measures as authoritarian in China one week, and then the next week see the same measures be rolled out in USA and EU. those dystopian drones which reminded people to wear their masks in public in Shanghai? Reminiscent of 1984? Oh they’re in Spain now helping to keep people off the streets. Soon coming to a city near you.

    And it’s not like they just ordered them -the supply lines have been down since January. The police have had them for a while but this is the first time to see those new toys in action.

    As much as the Western governments say they hate the CCP, it sure seems like they are using the same technocratic playbook.

  4. Doing my annual read of Atlas Shrugged. I nominate Catherine for the Midas Mulligan function.

    Is there a Galt’s Gulch in Tennessee?

    1. Tennessee as a state is very well run. But no Galt’s Gulch – will have to create one place at a time.

        2. More likely to be John Kerry. They need someone who is more trusted by global allies with lower negatives. Look at the appointments of Lagarde and von De Leyen. They want soothing, calming professional managers. Not Epstein partners.

    1. Excellent observation and it IS March Madness. Notice how SO many groups (media, sports, schools, local governments) jumped on board so fast?

    2. It’s not the New York Philharmonic, but it certainly looks like the deep state orchestrated it.

  6. If i wanted to stall the economy so that Trump doesn’t get re-elected, i would have (primarily democratic) mayors and governors ordering the closure of restaurants, K-12 schools, colleges, major concerts, major league sporting events, gyms, theaters, bars, wineries and altogether ban larger gatherings to stifle church attendance.

    Also ‘suggest’ that older citizens not go outside and ask businesses to close for two weeks. All the while those mayors & governors say how they understand how tough this all will be. (While THEY are still getting paid). And I would crash the stock market for good measure.

    That would slow things down enough to cause a recession.

    That’s what I would do if I wanted to have the economy fall off the edge.

    And THAT is exactly what is unfolding everyday – like watching a slow motion train wreck.

    It continues ….

    1. Possible that China and the oil producers are refusing dollars and inflation, debt heading up the curve. This could be inflation fighting too.

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