A great insight from Jim Willlie in his Golden Jackass March Newsletter.

Imports to the US are slowing, but import prices are seriously in uptrend. Total US import prices are up 13.6% on an annual basis, including energy. That fuels price inflation and reduced spending, both. All is not bleak for US trade data. Exports are rising, as cited. Within exports, agricultural products are a key component. This category flirted with deficits in 2004 and 2005, no longer. Farm product exports have doubled from previous peak levels, recently reaching $3 billion on a monthly basis. The United States commands a dominant position in this niche, a potential future weapon. The sizeable import of seasonal fruits and vegetables from Latin America in recent years has been offset by the screaming higher grain prices for US grains, once ethanol production came into vogue. Higher energy costs have also contributed to planting, fertilizer, and harvest costs, even dairy farm and ranch costs. Thus milk and cheese prices are rising.

* Special thanks to Jim for giving this subscriber permission to publish.