By the Solari Team

Every day, we add links to our News Trends & Stories Aggregator. Catherine uses this database of top stories and events to prepare her weekly Money & Markets discussions with John Titus.

On occasion, we decide to take a deeper look at important patterns. The ongoing sabotage or destruction of oil and gas production and refining and transportation facilities worldwide is one such pattern. Rising costs or renegotiated agreements relating to trade channels and bottlenecks are closely related. We expect these events to have a dramatic impact on trade relations and the global economy.

We just asked one of our best researchers to make and fact-check a chronology of these events so far this year (see Timeline and Key Statistics/Notes below). We welcome comments and additions from subscribers—you can post in the comments section.

TIMELINE

Blue = Accidental or Possible Sabotage
Red = War-related

JANUARY 2026

Jan 13 [Ukraine War / Black Sea] — Matilda tanker (Maltese-flagged) attacked by two Ukrainian unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) in the Black Sea.

Jan 14 [Ukraine War] —
Near city of Almetyevsk, Russia
Ukrainian strike drones hit the Kaleykino facility on the Druzhba pipeline. Kaleykino becomes a critical bottleneck — ~100,000 tons/year of crude (about a quarter of Russia’s annual oil exports) flow through it.

Jan 16
Pine County, Minnesota, USA
Explosion to Northern Natural Gas Pipeline
Owned by Berkshire Hathaway Energy
The rupture ignited in two locations, causing evacuations and leaving hundreds of homes without heat during sub-zero temperatures. The 28-mile pipeline connects to an offshore rig and is part of Delfin LNG’s proposed floating liquefied natural gas export terminal project in the Gulf of Mexico. It is fully operational again.

Jan (mid-late) [Caspian] — Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) exports fell to 800,000–900,000 bpd [barrels per day], more than half below September 2025 levels, following the late-November 2025 drone attack that disabled mooring SPM-2. Kazakhstan losing ~$1 billion per month. CPC exports fell 45% from planned volumes in January 2026.

Jan 27 [Ukraine War] — Russian oil shipments via the Druzhba pipeline to Hungary and Slovakia halted due to damage to the pipeline on Ukrainian territory in Lviv region. Ukrainian officials blame a Russian drone strike. Exports to Hungary and Slovakia effectively were halted. Just resumed on April 23, 2026.

There were 23 Ukrainian strikes in January on Russian oil-processing, transport/storage, and industrial facilities, with seven successful strikes in January alone on Russian oil depots.

FEBRUARY 2026

Feb 3
Cameron Parish, Louisiana, USA
Fire at Delfin LNG Pipeline
Owned by Delfin Midstream – Parent Company: Fairwood Peninsula Energy Corp – Private Company with Shareholders. Minority Stakes: Vitol, Mitsui O.S.K. Lines, Enbridge
A 42-inch line ruptured and exploded during routine maintenance, creating a massive fireball. It was contained pretty quickly. The first phase of Delfin LNG is designed to consist of up to three floating LNG units connected to existing onshore pipeline infrastructure through a deepwater port 50 miles south of the Louisiana coast.

Feb 11 [Ukraine War] — Major Ukrainian drone strike on the Lukoil-Volgogradneftepererabotka refinery (one of Russia’s largest, processing ~5% of Russian throughput). Crude distillation unit damaged — accounts for ~40% of the refinery’s 140,000 bpd capacity. First major Russian refinery shutdown linked to drone strikes in 2026.

Feb 12 [Ukraine War] — Ukrainian drones damage a major Russian refinery in Ukhta (near-Arctic). First recorded deep-strike attack at this latitude.

Feb 15–20 [Iran War (pre-war)] — Iran triples its oil export rate and draws down storage. Saudi Arabia takes similar steps. Iran conducts a temporary partial closure of the Strait of Hormuz mid-February, framed as a military drill; oil prices spike ~6%. War-risk ship insurance premiums for the strait rise from 0.125% to 0.2%–0.4% of ship insurance value per transit.

Feb 17 [Ukraine War] — Ukrainian drones damage a Russian refinery near Krasnodar.

Feb 19 [Ukraine War] — Neftogorsk gas-processing facility in Samara region struck. NASA satellites observe fires still burning two days later.

Feb 19
El Segundo, California, USA
Explosion at Chevron Refinery
Owned by Chevron Corp.
Top shareholders: Vanguard Group, State Street, BlackRock, Berkshire Hathaway
Capacity: 269,000 bpd
Supplies over 40% of Southern California’s aviation fuel and 20% of automotive. It is the largest oil-producing oil refinery on the West Coast. This came after an explosion in October of 2025, raising concerns.

Feb 23 [Ukraine War] — Ukrainian long-range kamikaze drones (35+ aircraft strike package flying 1,500 km) pummel the Kaleykino oil pumping station near Almetyevsk, Tatarstan. Multiple hits on pump lines and storage reservoirs at the Transneft-operated Druzhba facility. Fires visible for hundreds of meters. This is the key transit node for Druzhba deliveries to Hungary and Slovakia. Just resumed on April 23, 2026.

Feb 28 [Iran War (war begins)] —
U.S. and Israel launch ~900 strikes in 12 hours (Operation Epic Fury / Operation Roaring Lion). Opening salvo kills Supreme Leader Khamenei. Iran begins retaliatory missile/drone barrages across the Gulf. IRGC claims drone strike on Honduras-flagged tanker Athe Nova in the Strait of Hormuz. Iranian strike on UAE’s Fujairah Oil Industry Zone causes debris fire. Airspace closures begin across Bahrain, Iraq, Israel, Kuwait, Qatar, Syria, UAE. Over 4,000 daily flight cancellations follow.

MARCH 2026

Mar 1
Ecuador
Fire – Petroecuador’s Esmeraldas Oil Refinery
Owned by Ecuadorian Government. Accounts for 63% of Ecuador’s Total Refining Capacity.
Country’s largest oil refinery. Fire in charge pumps during maneuvers to restart the plant. Third time in nine months. Capacity: 110,000 barrels/day. March 5th declared state of emergency. March 16th resumed operations at half capacity, hoping to reach full capacity by May.

Mar 1 [Iran War] — Major drone attack on Abu Dhabi and Dubai’s Jebel Ali port (world’s 11th-largest container port); DP World suspends operations. Bellingcat later documents two fires at Dubai’s port including an area used by U.S. Navy. Palau-flagged tanker Skylight (Iranian shadow fleet) struck and set ablaze off Musandam, Oman. MKD Vyom struck off Oman — one killed. Hercules Star struck off UAE.

Mar 2 [Iran War] — Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) officially declares the Strait of Hormuz closed. Automatic identification system (AIS) transmissions go dark. No U.S., UK, or EU-flagged vessels transit. ~26 tankers drifting in Gulf; hundreds holding in Gulf of Oman.

Mar 2 [Iran War — Saudi] — Ras Tanura refinery (550,000 bpd, Saudi Arabia’s largest) hit by two Iranian drones. Debris fire. Aramco halts operations for ~16 days. Juaymah LPG exports halted.

Mar 2 [Iran War — Qatar] — QatarEnergy halts LNG production after drone strikes target Ras Laffan (world’s largest LNG complex, ~20% of global supply) and Mesaieed Industrial City. European TTF gas prices spike 45% to €46.19/MWh (4-year high).

Mar 2 [Iran War — Kuwait/Iraq/Bahrain] — Kuwait Mina Al Ahmadi refinery (346K bpd) damaged. U.S.-flagged tanker Stena Imperative struck twice at port of Bahrain — worker killed. Iraqi tankers Zefyros and Safesea Vishnu attacked and catch fire in Iraqi waters; Iraqi oil terminals suspend operations. Halliburton compounds in Basra hit.

Mar 3 [Iran War] — Sonangol Namibe tanker struck by sea drone near Kuwait’s Mubarak Al Kabeer Port — 800+ km from the strait. Oil spill.

Mar 4 [Iran War] — QatarEnergy declares force majeure on gas contracts. Pakistan requests Saudi reroute oil via Yanbu on Red Sea. Brent crosses $120/bbl [barrel of crude oil].

Mar 5 [Iran War] — War-risk protection and indemnity (P&I) insurance withdrawn for Strait of Hormuz; premiums multiply 10× in following days. Safeen Prestige tugboat struck by missiles and sinks.

Mar 5
Channelview, Texas, USA
Fire at Petromax Refining
Private Company Owned by NorthBridge Partners, with Investors
Capacity: 25,000 bpd
A process upset at a pump within the atmospheric gasoil unit. Was under control pretty quickly.

Mar 7 [Iran War] — IRGC claims drone strikes on Malta-flagged Prima and U.S. tanker Louis P. Kuwait Petroleum Corporation declares force majeure.

Mar 7 [Iran War — major escalation] — Israeli air strikes hit Iranian oil facilities for the first time: Tondgouyan (Shahr Rey), Shahran (Tehran City), Aghdasieh (NE Tehran), Fardis (Karaj). “River of fire,” toxic soot, and acid rain over Tehran. Iran retaliates on Haifa oil refinery.

Mar 8 [Iran War] — Bahrain desalination plant struck. Iraqi southern oil production collapses 70% since war began (4.3M → 1.3M bpd). Strikes on fuel depots near Tehran cause a “river of fire” through streets; Tehran engulfed in toxic black smoke, acid rain.

Mar 9 [Iran War] — Bahrain’s Bapco Energies declares force majeure after Sitra refinery complex strike (400K bpd — Bahrain’s only refinery). 32 civilians injured.

Mar 10 [Iran War / Baltic] — Mine laying confirmed in Hormuz by U.S. military intelligence. Only two outbound Hormuz crossings, zero inbound. Bulk carrier transits down 44%; dry-bulk down ~91%. ~280 bulk carriers stranded.

Mar 11 [Ukraine War] — Ukrainian drone strikes cause fires at oil depots in Nizhny Novgorod and Oryol Oblasts.

Mar 12 [Iran War] — GCC oil production collectively down ≥10 million bpd. Khalifa Bin Salman port (Bahrain) — Maersk’s APM Terminals suspends operations. Saudi Red Sea export pivot: 27 VLCCs [Very Large Crude Carriers] heading for Yanbu.

Mar 13 [Iran War / Ukraine War] — Iran War: Saudi Arabia cuts production by 20% (10M → 8M bpd); Safaniya field shut down. U.S. bombs Kharg Island — 90 targets, oil infrastructure deliberately spared. Ukraine War: Drones set fire to Rosneft’s Ryazan Refinery (Russia’s 7th-largest).

Mar 14 [Iran War] — Parimal struck east of Khor Fakkan (UAE) — 15 evacuated, captain missing. Indian tankers Shivalik and Nanda Devi given safe passage via India-Iran diplomacy.

Mar 17
Paraiso, Tabasco, Mexico
Fire & Explosion – Olmeca (Dos Bocas) Refinery
PEMEX is owned by Mexico. Capacity in 2025 reached 320,000 bpd.
It is the most significant refinery in Mexico for energy independence.
Operated by PEMEX. Five killed. This was the second incident at the site in quick succession. An April 9 follow-up fire was confined to a petroleum coke warehouse with no injuries reported. PEMEX attributes the cause to heavy rains causing oil-contaminated water to overflow the facility’s perimeter and ignite. First of four major safety incidents at Dos Bocas in 23 days. No fatalities.

Mar 18 [Iran War — major escalation] — Israel strikes Iran’s South Pars gas field / Asaluyeh complex. South Pars produces 730M m³/day (~70% of Iran’s domestic gas). Two refineries halted. Refinery #4 near-totally destroyed per satellite imagery. Within hours, Iran retaliates on Qatar’s Ras Laffan — destroying two LNG trains (12.8M tons/year combined, 17% of Qatar’s capacity). Shell’s Pearl GTL (world’s largest gas-to-liquids plant) damaged. Repairs projected at 3–5 years.

Mar 19 [Iran War] — Samref refinery (Saudi, ExxonMobil JV) drone strike. Mina Abdullah refinery (Kuwait) fire. Habshan (UAE’s largest gas processing plant) suspended after fire. Yanbu port loadings briefly halted.

Mar 21 [Iran War] — Bulk carrier explosion 15 nm north of Sharjah. UN Secretary-General calls for strait reopening.

Mar 22–23 [Ukraine War — major] — Ukrainian drones strike Primorsk port (Russia’s largest Baltic oil export hub, ~1M bpd capacity). Fuel depot ignited, most terminal berths and two tankers set on fire. Operations suspended. Ust-Luga (~700K bpd) also reportedly halted.

Mar 23
Valero, Texas, USA
Explosion – Valero Oil Refinery in Port Arthur, Texas
Valero Energy Corporation > Top: BlackRock, State Street, Vanguard
Capacity 435,000 bpd – refinery has partially restarted.
Major supplier of jet fuel, 3.7% of all refining capacity on U.S. Gulf Coast, accounting for 10-12 million drivers.
Valero Refinery is one of the largest refineries in the United States. Central part of critical infrastructure in the U.S. Investigations showed it was an accident due to equipment failure. Litigation ongoing. Due to several past explosions in 2007, 2012, and 2022, with over 600 air-quality violations during that time, I would rule this as a likely accident but wouldn’t discount sabotage.

Mar 24 [Iran War / Ukraine War] — Iran War: QatarEnergy formally declares force majeure on long-term LNG supply contracts (including Italy, Belgium, South Korea, China). Ukraine War: Ukrainian strikes on the Kropotkinskaya CPC base.

Mar 24–25 [Ukraine War] — SBU and General Staff confirm drone strike on Ust-Luga using Alpha Special Operations Center long-range drones (900+ km flight).

Mar 25–26 [Ukraine War] — Ukraine strikes the KINEF Kirishi refinery — Leningrad region — one of Russia’s top three, ~355,000 bpd. Russia’s Defense Ministry reports downing 125 drones across 13 regions.

Mar 26 [Ukraine War / Iran War] — Ukraine War: Third strike in five days on Ust-Luga and Primorsk ports (together handle two million bpd of Russian crude exports). NASA satellite data confirms fires at both ports. Severstal blast furnace in Cherepovets struck same night. Iran War: Iranian navy commander Tangsiri (accused of ordering Hormuz closure) killed in Israeli air strike.

Mar 27 [Iran War] — Bushehr nuclear power plant grounds struck. Mayuree Naree tanker aground on Qeshm Island. IRGC formally bans all vessels going to/from U.S., Israeli, or allied ports.

Mar 28 [Iran War] — Houthis formally join war with missile/drone strikes on Israel. Opens Red Sea front. Salalah port (Oman) suspended after attack. Yemen’s Abed al-Thawr: “We will use the trump card of closing the Bab al-Mandab.”

Mar 29 [Ukraine War / Caspian] — Drones hit Primorsk port (third strike in ~one week). Oil storage tanks damaged with satellite-confirmed fires. NORSI refinery (Nizhny Novgorod, Russia’s 4th-largest, 320K bpd) hit — fire forces suspension. Russian oil exports down 43% for week of March 22–29 (4.07M → 2.32M bpd) — estimated $1 billion lost revenue.

APRIL 2026

Apr 1 [Iran War] — Shahid Haghani port (Bandar Abbas, Iran) — U.S./Israeli strikes.

Apr 3 [Iran War] — Mina Al-Ahmadi (Kuwait) — multiple operational units fire (facility had already been hit twice).

Apr 5 [Iran War] — Kuwait Petroleum Corporation Shuwaikh complex and two power-and-desalination plants hit by Iranian drones. KPC headquarters hit. Bahrain Bapco storage facility hit again. Gulf Petrochemical Industries Co. fire. Ruwais (UAE — one of world’s biggest refineries) multiple debris fires. Khor Fakkan port fire.

Apr 5 [Ukraine War] — NORSI refinery (Nizhny Novgorod Russia) and Tuapse refinery (Krasnodar Krai Russia) hit. Both sustain fires and operational disruptions. Tuapse hit twice within one week.

Apr 6 [Ukraine War — CPC strike] — Ukrainian drones attack the Caspian Pipeline Consortium’s marine terminal at Novorossiysk. Single mooring point pipeline damaged; four oil product storage tanks caught fire. CPC handles ~1% of global oil supply and ~80% of Kazakhstan’s exports. Same night: strikes hit Sheskharis oil terminal (Novorossiysk) — Russia’s largest oil hub, handles up to 1 million bpd or ~20% of Russia’s seaborne exports.

Apr 7 [Iran War] — Fresh U.S. strikes on Kharg Island — 50+ military targets. Trump gives Iran 8 PM ET deadline to reopen strait. Trump threatens to destroy “every bridge and power plant in Iran.”

Apr 7–8 [Iran War — ceasefire] — Satorp refinery (Saudi Arabia, 460K bpd Aramco/TotalEnergies) — units halted. U.S. and Iran announce two-week ceasefire intended to include strait reopening.

Apr 8 (ceasefire day) [Iran War — major] — IRGC drone strikes a pumping station on Saudi Arabia’s East-West Pipeline (Petroline) — the 1,200-km bypass of Hormuz. Saudis had boosted throughput to 5+ million bpd to compensate for Hormuz closure. Strike cuts throughput by 700,000 bpd. Restored April 12. Occurs hours after ceasefire announcement. Same day: Lavan oil refinery (Iran) hit — crude seeps from tanks into the Persian Gulf.

Apr 9
Fire at Olmeca (Dos Bocas) Refinery
PEMEX is owned by Mexico. Capacity in 2025 reached 320,000 bpd.
Second fire at Mexico’s Dos Bocas refinery in <four weeks — petroleum coke warehouse fire. 150+ PEMEX specialists respond. Minor injury. Controlled by 6:25 PM.

Apr 9 [Iran War] — Iran War: Saudi Arabia acknowledges extensive recent attacks. Manifa (-300K bpd), Khurais (-300K bpd), Majnoon field (Iraq) targeted, Riyadh’s 120K bpd refinery attacked. Lanaz (Erbil, Iraq) suspended.

Apr 9 [Iran War — Red Sea threats] — Houthi deputy FM Hussein al-Ezzi publicly threatens to close Bab el-Mandeb. Velayati: “The unified command of the Resistance front views Bab al-Mandeb as it does Hormuz.”

Apr 11–12 [Iran War — talks collapse] — U.S.–Iran Islamabad talks end without agreement. Trump says he no longer cares about negotiations.

Apr 13 (U.S. blockade) [Iran War] — Trump announces U.S. Navy blockade of Iranian ports. CENTCOM deploys 10,000+ personnel, 12+ warships, dozens of aircraft. Six ships redirected in first 24 hours.

Apr 14
Singhitarai, India
Boiler Explosion at Vedanta Limited Chhattisgarh Thermal Power Plant
Owned by Volcan Investments Limited, Controlled by Anil Agarwal (43.6%).
Foreign Institutional Investors (small): Vanguard Group, BlackRock + Mutual Fund Companies
A boiler explosion at this coal-fired power plant killed 19 people and injured others during routine operations. Rupture of a steel tube carrying high-pressure steam from boiler to turbine. Plant is still shut down, pending investigations. FIR filed against Vedanta Chairman Anil Agarwal and others for negligence.

Apr 15 [Iran War] — U.S. air strikes hit Iran’s B1 bridge between Tehran and Karaj — Iran’s largest, under construction — collapses. Death toll 13. Simultaneous strikes on multiple railway lines, freeways, and roads across Iran. Railway bridge in Kashan (2 killed). Tabriz-Zanjan highway bridge hit.

Apr 15 [Baltic] — Sweden reports pro-Russian hackers attempted to breach a thermal power plant (cyber dimension of hybrid warfare now targeting power generation).

Apr 15-16
Victoria, Australia
Fire at Viva Energy’s Geelong Refinery
Owned by Viva Energy Group Limited – 29% Vitol Investment Partnership, 36% institutional investors: Ubique Asset Mgmt, State Street, Perpetual Limited, L1 Capital, Vanguard Group, and so on. BlackRock has a small share. Rest are retail/public shareholders.
Capacity: 120,000 bpd
Supplies over 50% of Victoria’s and 10% of Australia’s fuel.
Investigators say that the fire was caused by a faulty mechanical part that allowed for highly flammable gasses and liquid hydrocarbons to escape, which ignited, causing multiple explosions. They ruled out sabotage. Currently operating at 60% capacity for petrol and 80% for diesel and jet fuel. One of Australia’s only two operating oil refineries. 

Apr 16-17
Haripur, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Pakistan in Hattar Industrial Estate
Ruptured Sui Northern Gas Pipeline
Majority Owner – Government of Pakistan, some U.S. investors have a small stake.
Ruptured and ignited, triggering a massive fire that engulfed nearby residential quarters. (Eight dead). Still under investigation, only partial operations have resumed.

Apr 18
Blaine, Washington, USA
Explosion at BP Cherry Point Refinery
The explosion happened during a “planned maintenance,” and it is not fully up and running yet. It is still under inspection and investigation, but they claim the unit is not damaged and the refinery is still moving forward with major fuel commitments.

Apr 18 [Iran War] — Iran declares Strait of Hormuz formally closed in response to U.S. blockade. Iranian gunboats fire on Sanmar Herald (India-bound) after giving clearance. Two Iranian gunboats fire on a second tanker 20 nm NE of Oman without radio warning. Container vessel hit by projectile 25 nm NE of Oman.

Apr 19 [Iran War] — U.S. Navy fires on and seizes Iranian container ship in Gulf of Oman. U.S. Marines have custody of the vessel and Trump said that it is “under U.S. Treasury Sanctions because of their prior history of illegal activity.”

Apr 20 [Industrial — U.S.] — Well site explosion in Etoile, Nacogdoches County, East Texas (~140 miles NE of Houston) triggers a large fire visible for miles and forces evacuations. Natural gas/oil well. No injuries. Cause under investigation.

Apr 20–21 [Ukraine War] — Ukrainian SSU Special Operations Centre Alpha drones strike the Samara line production and dispatch station (Prosvet, Samara Oblast). Damages five 20,000-m³ crude oil storage tanks. Station mixes high- and low-sulphur oil to produce the Urals export blend — a key Russian crude benchmark. Samara and Ulyanovsk airports temporarily closed. This is a critical Druzhba pipeline node.

Apr 20
Pachpadra, Balotra, Rajasthan, India
Explosion at HPCL Rajasthan Refinery Ltd
Hindustan Petroleum 74% Equity Stake and Gov of Rajasthan 26% Stake
Capacity: 9 million tonnes per annum (fuel and petrochemical)
Exchanger explosion in crude distillation unit caused a major fire. $9.5 billion refinery-petrochemical project. Preliminary investigation suggests a hydrocarbon leak from a valve or flange in the heat exchanger circuit that erupted into a fire, a day before the scheduled inauguration of Prime Minister Narendra Modi. It was in commissioning and trial phase when the explosion occurred. Still planning to be operational in 2026, but running late.

Apr 20
Bucharest, Romania
Explosion at CET Vest Power Plant
97.51% owned by Romanian Government– 2.49% Owned by Romgaz > Goldman Sachs Asset Mgmt holds a small stake
A powerful explosion occurred at the CET Vest district heating/power plant (a key thermal facility serving the city), involving electrical transformers containing 30-40 tons of insulating oil. The incident severed the hot water and heating supply to over 2,300 apartment buildings. Partial operation. Can take up to a full year to get back to full operations.

Apr 20
Etoile, Texas, USA
Explosion at Oil Well
Revenant Energy operates this asset as part of a major development agreement with Black Stone Minerals, L.P. (BSM). Institutional Investors in Black Stone Minerals > Morgan Stanley, Rice University, Bank of America, Fidelity
An explosion at a Texas natural gas/oil well site set off a large fire that was seen for miles and led to some evacuations. The fire was triggered by a “blowout”—an uncontrolled release of natural gas following a failure in pressure control. It’s still burning today.

Apr 20-21
Homalin, Sagaing Region, Myanmar
Explosion at River Port along the Chindwin River
A major explosion at the river port along the Chindwin River ignited a blaze that engulfed more than 10 fuel tankers and 22 boats. It happened while loading fuel onto boats.

Apr 21 [Iran War] — Iran War: Ceasefire expiring this week; tensions teetering on renewed open war. Hormuz traffic down >90%.

Apr 22
Erbil, Iraqi Kurdistan
Fire at Khazir Refinery
Owned by local private businessmen
Capacity: 75,000 bpd
Under investigation – cause unknown thus far – possible sabotage.

Apr 22
Institute, West Virginia, USA
Explosion at Catalyst Refiners
A “violent chemical reaction” was triggered when nitric acid was accidentally mixed with a chemical known as M2000A (or M200A) during tank decommissioning. The facility was scheduled to permanently close in June 2026.

KEY STATISTICS AND NOTES

Based on reports from March and April 2026, a series of geopolitical conflicts, drone attacks, and infrastructure accidents caused the largest recorded oil supply disruption, with global production losses exceeding 10 million barrels per day (mb/d) in March 2026.

Primary Affected Waterways and Trade Routes (as of April 25, 2026)

• Strait of Hormuz: Effectively closed to most commercial traffic after Iran laid mines, engaged in drone/missile attacks, and issued threats.
  • “Dual Blockade”: Following the closure by Iran, the U.S. Navy began a blockade of Iranian ports and the strait itself on April 13, 2026.
  • Impact: About 20,000 mariners and 2,000 ships were initially stranded, with traffic dropping by over 70%. Shipping through this, and the Gulf of Oman, is largely blocked.
• Red Sea & Bab el-Mandeb Strait: While the focus shifted to Hormuz, the Houthi movement continues to pose high risks to shipping in this area, restricting traffic from returning to the Suez Canal.
• Cape of Good Hope (alternative route): Shipping companies are heavily rerouting around South Africa, adding 10 to 20 days to voyages between Asia and Europe/North America.
• Black Sea: The ongoing Russia-Ukraine war has intensified in 2026, with drone attacks targeting tankers, particularly those associated with the Russian shadow fleet, restricting traffic in the region. 

Affected Sea Ports and Terminals

• Jebel Ali Port (UAE): The world’s 9th busiest port and a critical transshipment hub suspended operations in March 2026 following nearby explosions and debris.
• Port of Fujairah (UAE): Energy loading operations were disrupted by Iranian drone attacks.
• Port of Duqm & Salalah (Oman): Drones struck in the vicinity of these ports, damaging fuel storage, and they are now classified as high-risk areas.
• Chabahar Port (Iran): A focal point of U.S. blockade efforts, with many Iranian vessels anchored there.
• Ras Laffan Industrial City (Qatar): Damaged in attacks, reducing Qatar’s LNG capacity by 17%. 

Key Incidents & Explosions

• Tanker Attacks: Numerous tankers, including the MT Skylight and MKD VYOM, were damaged or abandoned on March 1, 2026, with several crew fatalities reported.
• Mining: The U.S. Navy has been engaged in clearing naval mines laid by Iran in the Strait of Hormuz since early April.
• Seizures: Multiple ships, including the Greek-owned Epaminondas and MSC Francesca, were seized by Iranian forces in the Gulf of Oman in late April 2026.
• GPS Jamming: Widespread jamming has been reported, forcing ships into zig-zag patterns and creating high-risk situations in the Gulf of Oman. 

Global Economic Impact

• Oil Prices: Surged past $100 a barrel in March, with high volatility continuing in April.
• Insurance: War-risk premiums have tripled or quadrupled for the region, making passage financially unviable for many.
• Freight Rates: Spiked 30–50% on Asia-to-U.S. corridors.
• Shortages: The disruption has already caused manufacturing shutdowns due to lack of components. 

Chokepoints, Ports, and Pipelines

Strait of Hormuz: Effectively closed since March 2; formally reclosed April 18. Commercial traffic down >90%. U.S. Navy blockade of Iranian ports in force since April 13.

Bab el-Mandeb / Red Sea: Traffic “sharply reduced” per Windward. Houthis joined war March 28, threats to close strait April 9. Suez Canal crossings down ~32.5% on peak days; Cape of Good Hope rerouting elevated.

Druzhba Pipeline (Russia-Hungary-Slovakia): Effectively halted since January 27. Kaleykino hit January 14 and February 23. Samara station hit April 20–21. Hungary’s Orbán and Slovakia’s Fico threaten to block EU aid to Ukraine; Bratislava declared an energy-sector state of emergency February 18.

Saudi East-West Pipeline (Petroline): Hit April 8 (ceasefire day); 700K bpd throughput cut; restored April 12. The only major non-Hormuz Saudi export alternative.

Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC): Hit multiple times — November 29, 2025 SPM-2 disabled; March 24 Kropotkinskaya base; April 6 Novorossiysk marine terminal (mooring plus four oil tanks on fire). Kazakhstan’s ~80% oil export route. Kazakhstan losing ~$1B/month; forced to reroute Kashagan crude to China for first time ever.

Baltic Ports (Primorsk/Ust-Luga/Novorossiysk/Sheskharis): Repeatedly hit by Ukrainian deep-strike drones March 22–29. Together handle 2M+ bpd of Russian crude. At least 50 tankers stuck offshore in the Gulf of Finland. Smoke visible from Finland.

Iranian transport infrastructure: Multiple railway lines, freeways, and roads hit April 15 by U.S. strikes. Tehran-Karaj B1 bridge collapsed. Kashan railway bridge hit (two killed). Tabriz-Zanjan highway bridge hit.

Gulf ports: Jebel Ali (Dubai, suspended Mar 1), Fujairah (UAE), Khalifa Bin Salman (Bahrain, Maersk suspended Mar 12), Sohar (Oman), Salalah (Oman, suspended Mar 28), Mina Al Fahal (Oman), Duqm (Oman) all hit or suspended at various points.

No confirmed direct disruptions at Panama Canal, Strait of Malacca, or Strait of Gibraltar, though global shipping rerouting and Singapore refining tightness have system-wide effects.

As of April 25, 2026, the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed or severely restricted to commercial traffic. Despite ceasefire talks, a “dual blockade” exists where Iran controls the strait and the U.S. blockades Iranian ports, leading to minimal shipping traffic and continued energy sector volatility.